Everyone Can Play a Part in Accelerating Energy Transformation
By Gian Pei Fang
The 2019 SIEW Energy Insights session kicked off with opening remarks from Mr. Ngiam Shih Chun, Chief Executive, Energy Market Authority (EMA). Mr. Ngiam gave an overview of how SIEW Energy Insights serves as a platform to provide more in-depth perspectives on this year’s SIEW theme, Accelerating Energy Transformation, as well as on the variety of energy issues discussed over the first two days of SIEW.
At this third annual SIEW Energy Insights event, DNV GL shared the regional launch of their Energy Transition Outlook 2019 report, which focuses on power supply and use forecast up until 2050, as well as the implications of greater electricity use and energy production that is dominated by renewables.
Lucy Craig, Vice President and Director of Technology and Innovation, DNV GL – Energy, began the session by explaining the fact-based modelling mix used in the forecast, which forecasts future economic decisions based on anticipated energy costs, population growth and supply and demand of energy within the region.
Ms. Craig shared that today, about 80 per cent of the final energy demand within Southeast Asia is met by fossil fuels. She predicts that over the next 20 years, reliance on fossil fuels will drop to 44 per cent, with the remaining 56 per cent of electricity being generated by variable renewable energy resources such as wind and solar. This will largely be driven by the rapid drop in cost of renewable technologies. Ms. Craig shared that when the capacity for batteries, solar and wind doubles, their corresponding costs are expected to drop by 19, 18 and 16 per cent, respectively, based on the forecasted cost learning curve rates for these respective technologies.
Mr. Jason Goodhand, Global Segment Leader in Energy Storage, DNV GL, further added that subsidies and policy decisions in SEA have allowed renewable uptake to increase, and that electrification is forecasted to grow from 25 per cent to 50 per cent of energy demand in 2050. In about 5 to 10 years, Mr. Goodhand predicts further innovation in lithium ion batteries, which currently dominate the energy storage industry. “As we shift into the future, we will have [a] vast amount of renewables and start to see improved technologies come into play,” he explained. Mr. Goodhand illustrated his prediction in innovation by highlighting the development of redox-flow batteries, which today last about 6 to 8 hours, which is longer than the lithium ion batteries which currently dominate the market.
“Unfortunately, these changes are not rapid enough to limit temperature rise to avoid climate catastrophe,” shared Ms. Craig. She added that although there will be significant changes towards electrification and grid investments to manage the complexity of renewables, there will still be reliance on coal and natural gas in 2050. Ms. Craig summarised the three main measures that can be applied to close the emissions gap and accelerate energy transition, which are to increase electricity generation from renewables, increase focus on energy efficiency and invest more in carbon capture and storage technology within the industry.
As Ms. Craig and Mr. Goodhand emphasised during the session, we all have a part to play to close the emissions gap to accelerate energy transformation through new renewable technologies.