Lucy Craig of DNV GL – Energy on the energy transition and the measures needed to reach Paris Agreement goals.
1. DNV GL will be presenting the Energy Transition Outlook 2019 this October at SIEW Energy Insights. What are the key takeaways highlighted in the outlook?
Firstly, we forecast a rapid energy transition unfolding within the timespan of a single generation. There will be a profound shift towards electrification and to electricity generation from renewable sources, with significant implications for power supply and use. Electricity’s share in energy use will double to 40 per cent in 2050, from 19 per cent today, with renewables providing almost 80% of the electricity mix.
By 2050, generation from solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind will be 36,000 terawatt (TW) hours per year, more than 20 times today’s output. Greater China and India will provide the largest share of solar power by mid-century, with a 40 per cent share of global installed PV capacity in China.
Secondly, the pace of the transition is not fast enough to deliver on the Paris agreement. Carbon emissions will not fall sufficiently in the coming decades to enable us to reach the Paris Agreement goal of well below 2 deg global warming, let alone 1.5 deg by 2100.
Global energy-related emissions will peak in 2025 and we estimate a rise in average global temperatures of 2.4 deg above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
However, we do believe that technologies have the potential to close the ‘emissions gap’ - the difference between the forecasted rate at which our energy system is decarbonising and the pace we need to reach, to limit global warming to well below 2 deg as set out by the Paris Agreement.
2. You identified several key technology measures that could help meet the Paris Agreement. Could you share more about this?
We believe that a combination of technology measures can help close the climate gap and limit global warming to well below 2 deg.
We recommend that for the next decade several measures should be put in place, including the growth of 10 times more solar power to 5 TW, and five times more wind power to 3 TW.
Furthermore, 50 million electrical vehicles per year will be needed by 2030, requiring a 50-fold increase in batteries, and large-scale charging infrastructure.
3. What do the proposed technology measures mean for the power and renewables industry?
We will need to scale-up production and deployment of solar and wind, as well as create more storage and balancing solutions to increase the penetration of renewables.
This expansion of renewables must also be supported by a massive expansion and reinforcement of transmission and distribution networks. We estimate that more than $1.5trn annual investment are needed by 2030 to improve global power grids, including ultra-high-voltage transmission networks and extensive demand-response solutions to balance variable renewables.
We also need to advance energy efficiency measures. Within the next decade, the reduction in global energy intensity, the energy used per unit of output, needs to happen at a faster rate, going from our current forecast of approximately 2.5 per cent per annum to approximately 3.5 per cent.
4. With the advancements in technology, can we reach the goal of the Paris Agreement?
To some extent, the advancements in technology make it possible for us to reach the goal of the Paris Agreement. However, these technological measures can only be successful if they are supported by extraordinary policy action. More specifically, we require the support of government policies to expand and adapt power grids to accommodate the rise of renewables, economic stimulus for energy efficiency measures and regulatory reform to accelerate the electrification of transport.
Yet fast-tracking the energy transition is not the sole responsibility of policy makers. It takes a concentrated effort by governments, business and society to accelerate action. With the right technology, political will and global solidarity we can realise our goal of a clean energy future.
5. The theme for SIEW 2019 is Accelerating Energy Transformation. What do you look forward to being discussed at SIEW this year?
A top priority for me is supporting our customers in accelerating the Energy Transition. I am looking forward to meeting many of our existing customers and other stakeholders in the energy sector, to hear about their projects and future plans for facilitating, developing or investing in renewables, in network infrastructure or in flexibility options such as energy storage.
About Lucy Craig, Vice President Technology & Innovation, DNV GL – Energy
Lucy Craig is Vice President and Director of Technology and Innovation at DNV GL – Energy, where she is responsible for digitalisation, innovation and technical governance across service areas covering renewables advisory and certification, transmission and distribution advisory services, power component certification and energy management. She manages investments in innovation projects and DNV GL – Energy’s strategic growth segments including data analytics, energy storage, offshore wind and solar.
Prior to her current role, Lucy managed the region of Iberia and Latin America for DNV GL in Renewables Advisory. Lucy has 30 years’ experience in the renewables industry, originally in wind energy and over the last 10 years also in solar. She has a PhD in electrical power engineering and is a Fellow of the Institute of Engineering and Technology.